Year of the Groundhog

As the new appointed Blogger for the National Apartment Association, I kicked things off by channeling Punxsutawney Phil:

This season, it doesn’t take a groundhog to tell a landlord that the housing market is in for a long winter.

Failing banks are old news, I write, but the fallout on consumer credit is getting scary:

And this just in:

 

The bottom line:

it’s vital for landlords, as users of credit information, to understand what goes into the "score" – it’s often not what you think.

Times like these call for screening results you can understand and trust.

Sign of the times: Steep decline in renter quality

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

One third more active renters in last six months have faced eviction

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. -– Landlords using On-Site.com to qualify new renters have seen a marked increase in applicants with serious problems paying the rent. In the last 3 months, compared to the year prior, 31.8 percent more applicants to rental housing screened by On-Site had been evicted or left a landlord owing money. And preliminary figures from 2009 paint an even bleaker picture.

As the depths of the nation’s economic crisis become clear, the quality of applicants to rental apartments showed a sharp decline in the third and fourth quarters of 2008, On-Site’s figures say. On-Site.com, one of the largest resident-screening services in the country, evaluates renters before they lease an apartment; industry statistics suggest that over half of renters with an eviction record will be evicted again in the future.

On-Site’s figures, which report nationally on more than 100,000 applications per month, show that in the last six months of 2008, the number of rental housing applicants with a serious landlord delinquency on file shot up dramatically — an increase of 22.9% and 31.8% in Q3 and Q4, respectively, compared to the same quarters from 2007.

These figures focus solely on rental-housing default and do not consider applicants with mortgage foreclosures on file. While the number of applicants with serious mortgage delinquencies has been on the rise, On-Site’s figures suggest that job losses and a slumping economy — not a mass exodus from homeownership — is driving the trend.

"In the winter months we traditionally see a lower overall quality of renter, relative to the rest of the year," noted Jake Harrington, On-Site’s director of business development. "So we compared to a snapshot of the year prior. It’s an unprecedented surge in red-flag behavior."

Landlords utilize resident screening services to evaluate whether they should accept or reject applicants based on public records, credit history and other factors. To evaluate a consumer’s credentials, On-Site typically investigates a consumer’s credit profile and criminal record, as well as a check of landlord/tenant court records from housing courts across the country. The screening system weighs these factors against an apartment community’s risk threshold to determine the recommendation to rent, decline or rent with certain conditions like an increased security deposit.

Multifamily default and eviction information is distinct from the credit scores sold by the credit bureaus, which were developed primarily for use by banks and lenders to determine a consumer’s "creditworthiness," and have never been a perfect fit for screening tenants. Harrington says that it is rental housing performance, and not a credit score, that is most relevant to landlords.

"The most important piece of the puzzle is how the resident has performed on his previous lease," said Harrington. "This information is also the most difficult to access." In addition to records obtained directly from county housing courts, On-Site’s reports incorporate scorecards and reference calls from landlords, debt collections and money judgments initiated by property managers and rental-payment history from RentBureau, a credit bureau specializing in the multifamily industry.

"Resident quality trends are our in-house 'economic indicator' and it certainly paints the picture of a distressed pool of renters." Harrington noted, adding that January’s numbers are on track for an even sharper increase in screenings with negative rental information – with 48 percent more screenings with landlord delinquencies compared to a year ago.

"With a surge in active renters out there with this sort of severe problem in their recent past, it is more important than ever for landlords to conduct a thorough review of their credentials. A credit score doesn’t cut it."

Students beware: Being smart hurts some credit scores

This Sunday's New York Times shed further light on the problem with credit scores like Fair Isaac Company's FICO score. In short, students applying for loans are penalized for shopping around for a competitive interest rate.

I find it outrageous that young consumers, most of whom are just starting to build a credit history, are harmed for exercising sound financial judgment. This is another symptom of mysterious "black box" risk scores... it's not just your payment activity or balances they look at. They try to gauge your intentions to predict how risky you are.

In this case, the score gets it dead wrong:

Lots of inquiries send the wrong signals to the formulas that create the popular FICO credit score... namely that borrowers may be applying for multiple loans because they're financially troubled and potentially going bankrupt.

The damage is even greater for young students who have a short credit history.

There's even a website, a sort of Lending Tree for student loans, that aims to circumvent the vicious cycle of:

  • Shop for a loan
  • They check your credit
  • Your score drops
  • Try somewhere else
  • They check your now-worse credit
  • Your score drops further...

The FICO creators need to come out from hiding behind the black box, where our smarter score proudly sits. Or at the least, they should overlook multiple hits to the credit file of student loan shoppers. (A similar exception exists when you are shopping for an auto or home loan; that is, when different loan officers check your credit in the same two weeks, it doesn't damage your score.)

Name-your-own-credit-score

We don't rely on traditional credit scores for many reasons:

  • They ignore factors that landlords care about
  • They consider factors landlords do not care about
  • They are subject to manipulation

Today's New York Times illustrates how to cheat the system and raise your credit score by piggybacking on someone else's good record.

This is big business, and a major problem in the mortgage industry, where 1 in 4 loan applications include fraud by way of falsified documents or false credit reports!

You're asking for trouble if you're a landlord that uses FICO or relies on a pre-packaged "risk score" from a resident-screening company. These scores can be gamed, whereas our screening reports are not vulnerable to this sort of manipulation.

Get in touch for more ideas on how we can help you rent with confidence.

12next ›last »